Documentation

General

Climate Neutral municipal tools are based on a integrated mathematical model that considers a multitude of variables to create a comprehensive picture of a municipalities past, present, and future emissions scenarios. This model (colloquially referred to as the “cnc algorithm”) is based on user specified inputs and generates result outputs in the forms of data tables, graphs, scorecards and charts displayed on the tools user-interface. Results are also published to a auto-generating and updating pdf documents that can be downloaded by the user.

The tools are designed to leverage the investment that municipalities have made in past plans and studies by integrating the data and planning work from them into an easy to use quantitative tool that considers new data and knowledge and is updated annually.

For municipalities that presently utilize the PCP Milestone Tool for inventories, Climate Neutral syncs with the existing PCP inventory and provides valuable additional analysis and utility. It provides the framework to easily convert an annual PCP entry into a release and council-ready Annual Inventory Data Report including all the Charts and metrics that would conventionally be included in a full Community Energy or Climate plan - all without staff opening a single spreadsheet.

The functionality built into the mitigation action and pathway tools allow municipalities to develop and iterate data-supported action plans in a new way. Detailed insights into the emissions savings impacts of Mitigation Actions is calculated and reported instantly in the online-tool, something that otherwise required complete consultant feasibility studies to determine.

Inventories

Emissions and energy inventories are calculated based on GPC and PCP guidelines. Yearly emissions and energy indicators are calculated based on utility and fuel consumption data from each sector along with emissions intensity and energy coefficients. Per capita indicators, sector indicators and other standard outputs are calculated as well as advanced socio-economic indicators. Advanced indicators are based on User’s Socio-Economic Data entered for each inventory year. Emissions and energy can be entered into model via source data or by manually entering emissions for each sector. Historic data from previous studies and inventories is entered into a the inventory database and missing data is interpolated between known data, such that a complete dataset of annual emissions, energy, and associated indicators is obtained.

The intention is to create the most representative and useful inventory possible and as such, sectors and subsectors can be customized based on local factors and considerations. By default the tool utilizes the standard breakdown of City-wide emissions for stationary emissions including Residential, Industrial and Commercial / Institutional sectors. On-Road transportation is based on local fuel sales.

Inventory Inputs

Inventory Outputs

Pathways

Emissions pathways are forecasts of emissions and per capita emissions from 2021 to 2050 based on various user-specified scenarios. The goal is to develop pathways based on reasonable, supported assumptions and compare these pathways to determine future outcomes.

There are three main pathways that are calculated with the cnc algorithm.

Business as Usual (BAU) Pathway: Outlines the anticipated emissions forecast expected when no active actions are undertaken to reduce emissions. Total emissions on the BAU pathway increase according to User specified populated growth as well as specified anticipated increase in per capita emissions for the 2030 and 2050 years. The BAU increase parameter is unique for each municipality and is based on a variety of considerations, explicitly outlined when specified, but is broadly informed by forecast reports released by IESO.

Target Pathway: Outlines the desired emissions trajectory including the annual reductions required to meet community mitigation targets. This pathway is based on the targets as expressed as a percentage reduction in emissions from a baseline year by a specified target year. The model is default to the 2005 baseline year and 2030 and 2050 target years in order to match provincial and federal emissions targets but can be changed based on User’s unique community targets.

Action Pathway: Outlines the emission trajectory that results when mitigation actions are applied to your business as usual scenario. The emissions savings from each action are added to determine the total GHG mitigation for the pathway.

Mitigation Actions

Activities and changes that proactively work to reduce emissions of and stabilize the levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There are three categories of mitigation

Avoidance - Eliminating the sources of GHG emissions by replacing with a non-emitting alternative or avoiding activity altogether. For example, replacing a vehicle trip with a bicycle ride. Avoidance mitigation works at reducing primary energy demand.

Minimization - Reducing emissions by increasing how efficiently fossil-fuel consumption meets energy demand or fuel-switching to a lower-emitting alternative. Replacing natural gas furnaces with heat pumps.

Compensatory Mitigation - Efforts to reverse or offset the impacts of emissions after they have occurred. This can include different methods of carbon capture via biological (tree planting) or technological means. Viewed as a last resort, after avoidance and minimization has been applied to fullest practical extent.

Climate neutral software allows users to model the impact of avoidance and minimization type mitigation actions based on emissions baselines stored in the user’s inventory for the desired baseline year for analysis. User’s enter the mitigation actions they would like to analyze as part of their Action Pathway and specify the participation and emissions reduction targets for the 2030 and 2050 milestone years.

The participation target variable refers to the percentage of the population for a given sector that will participate in a given mitigation action. An example would be the estimate that 30% of vehicles will be electric by the year 2030. Participation targets for each strategy should be supported with references and explanation.

The emissions target reduction variable refers to the percentage of emissions savings over baseline that the mitigation action will achieve. These emissions savings should be supported with references. For example, electric vehicles results in a 60% reduction in emissions based on IESO report.

Avoidance type mitigation is entered by specifying a emissions reduction fraction of %100, while minimization mitigation of various degrees is modeled as a emissions reduction fraction between 0-%100.

The impact of each action as well as the total impact of all actions entered are calculated and graphed as results on the user interface. Yearly emissions savings for years between baseline, 2030 and 2050 are linearly interpolated.

Compensatory mitigation impacts are calculated independently of user baseline inventories and are based on the desired offsets as a result of the Mitigation Gap.

Mitigation Gap

Mitigation Gap = Target Pathway -Action Pathway

A mitigation gap is the emissions difference between the action pathway and the target pathway. It represents the anticipated emissions reduction shortfall for the given year when all entered mitigation actions are applied to the BAU pathway. The goal of sustainability planning is to eliminate the mitigation gap by developing mitigation actions and the associated plans for their implementation.

Carbon Budget

Carbon budgeting has conventionally been utilized to describe the total amount of greenhouse gas that can be emitted to the atmosphere while maintaining a threshold of average global temperature increase. It looks at emissions from a cumulative perspective that considers the pathway taken to achieve a target from a given baseline. The IPCC provides guidelines for carbon budget targets on a per capita emissions basis.

While the IPCC targets are utilized by default, the Climate Neutral carbon budget allows users to specify their own targets and baselines allowing them to develop a budget which reflects their community goals. This expands the carbon budget approach to provide utility for community targets defined independently of temperature defined targets.

A carbon budget is calculated as the summation of cumulative emissions from the target pathway for the baseline year to the desired target year. 2030 and 2050 budgets are calculated and reported on the user-interface along with the years the budgets are exhausted.

Exhausted Budget - The year that cumulative BAU pathway emissions surpass the carbon budget. The goal is to create mitigation plans which do not exhaust the carbon budget specified for a given target.

Carbon Mitigation

Mitigation actions are applied to the carbon budget to determine the cumulative emissions savings. The years that the 2030 and 2050 budgets are exhausted is recalculated for the mitigation actions applied.